Our regular Saturday slot of the last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).
A losing week for all the squiggly lines we follow. Hardly a disaster week, but a loser all the same. Notably, the worst of the bunch was the gold miner producer ETF (GDX), with its first real retreat since the Bouncing Bernanke QE3 announcement days. The others, all around a point off for the week.
Anglo American (AAL.L) (AAUKY) being kicked out of Venezuela and its nickel operation to be nationalized
Setty has the exclusive right here. Go read for yourself, but here's how his scoop kicks off:
"Anglo American has a nickel mine in Venezuela. A month from now, from what I hear, that won’t be the case. The concessions now being mined expire..." continues here
...the US Dollar (USD) Chinese Renminbi/Yuan (CNY) exchange rate, last five years:
As the FT notes, it's the highest in the last 19 years this morning.
Peru central banker? Easy Life! The board met again today and decided it was best not to fiddle with the benchmark interest rate of the country. For the 17th month running.
Here's a US justice dept NR headline dated today, October 10th:
"Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces Seizure Of Over $31 Million In Connection With An International Drug Trafficking And Money Laundering Scheme"
"...today announced the seizure of over $31 million from nine bank accounts in the United States, which are alleged to have been connected to an international money laundering scheme run by a drug trafficking organization operated by members of the Sanchez-Paredes family (the “Sanchez-Paredes DTO”), a family that Peruvian law enforcement authorities have been investigating since the early 1980s."
"For example, the Sanchez-Paredes DTO owns two mining companies, CIA Minera Aurifera Santa Rosa SA (“Comarsa”), and CIA Minera San Simon (“San Simon”), which purport to be in the business of mining gold, but are believed to be in the business of producing cocaine. In March 2007, Peruvian authorities seized approximately 125 tons of calcium oxide, a chemical used to both mine gold and produce cocaine, that were later identified as having been purchased by Comarsa and San Simon. Comarsa’s mining records show that on numerous occasions, the amount of calcium oxide it used did not correspond with the amounts needed to process gold. This suggests that Comarsa is not actually involved in the business of mining gold, but rather in the business of producing cocaine."
In a shocking development, the world notices that Venezuelans resident in Miami are not a representative pool of their fellow nationals
This is the report written on Liberty Silver (LSL.to) (LBSV.ob) that appeared in last Sunday's edition of The IKN Weekly, issue 179. The only thing to have changed are the two price charts, because I didn't save the ones from last week and have used the ones available on yahoo today which show the same thing, just a couple of extra days down the line. The rest is verbatim.
...downloaded the SEDAR files, checked through them and suddenly LSL was past first base and onto second, but this time as a potential short. And when I saw the name of the person who was running the show from backstage, a certain infamous Bobby Genovese, it went straight to home run. With the price running above $1.50 on Thursday on strong volume and no real news and listing in the USA on the OTCBB (that does most of the volume) and on the TSX as LSL.to (note, not a Venture exchange listing) this had the makings of a great shortable story to put before you today and one that many of you (I admit not all, because shorting Canadian stocks isn’t child’s play and much easier if you’re an accredited investor or inside an insto) would be able to play to the downside.
As the LSL NR later that day (24) (after the bell in fact) confirmed the halt and added some flavour to the reasons behind it
Most of those 65m very cheap shares are held by Robert Donald Bruce Genovese, known to friends and foes alike as Bobby Genovese or sometimes simply “Bobby G”. We’ll call him ‘Genovese’ from here on because I have no desire ever to be on first name terms with this scumbag. Genovese also bought a fair whack of LSL shares over the OTC market in the period December 2011 to January 2012 at prices at or around one dollar (25) at the same time as a placement that raised $4.6m (the qualifying placement for the company’s TSX listing) was running on the stock, units priced at 50c. From these transactions, we know that he controls at least 10% of the company but that’s almost certainly the tip of the iceberg and he holds a lot more of these shares. Based on information from reliable sources, Genovese holds at least 48m shares of LSL that come from the original transactions and forward splits that set up the company structure we see today. However, it’s necessary to state that this 48m holding is not officially known and in fact the lack of disclosure on Genovese’s part is likely one of the main reasons the SEC halted the stock pre-bell Friday morning, so in the course of the next few days I’d expect clarification on this matter.
‘Clearly Canadian’ is not his only pump and dump scam either, not by a long chalk. The last 20 years is littered with the remains of companies he has promoted, pumped, dumped and cashed in with, all to the retail shareholders’ chagrin. The table above is from the mentioned report (I asked for and was denied permission from the authors to pass on the whole PDF, but was granted permission to sample from it, including the sampling of this table). For further reading I also point you towards to this report (26) by Carol Remond of Dow Jones Newswires dated November 2009 that goes into the world of Genovese and some of the scams that he has successfully led. Genovese is now by all accounts a very wealthy man, but he’s made his money the parasite’s way.
- The Trinity property has been optioned from Renaissance Gold (REN.to). The deal cost LSL $25,000 up front, has a few cash payments along the way and the company now has four years in which to spend $5m on its development in order to earn 70% rights.
- The heart of the Trinity property isn’t much more than a mined out deposit. It was mined by the Borax Company of USA in the period 1987 to 1989, when that operation mined out the best rock in the centre of the deposit grading around 6oz/t silver (around 185 g/t) in oxide host. When the best was mined, Borax decided that the silver price at the time for what was left was too low and they closed down the operation.
- That’s still true today. Borax and others put in a lot of drill holes in and around the Trinity property, trying to find more of the good grading stuff, but nothing doing. What’s left there today is a non-43101 compliant historical resource that’s understood by the 2011 technical report to grade at an average of 0.7 ounces Ag per tonne. There’s plenty of rock there that grades to that average, but the whole resource is based on the halo of lower grading material that was left behind when Borax had finished the good material.
- According to optioners REN.to (a serious exploration company), the interest that Trinity may hold is at depth, with the potential to drill under the low grading oxide halo and into the underlying sulphide to potentially discover a copper style porphyry system that wasn’t on the agenda of Borax in the 80s or others later. However, Genovese and LSL have stated that the company can put together a PEA based on the drilling done to date alone and that it’s not necessary to drill any more. This clearly implies that the very limited drilling program done by LSL earlier this year, which included just two twinning holes to check previous assay results from the historical drilling program instead of the 12 holes that third party technical report compilers Mine Development Associates (MDA) recommended, is all that LSL thinks it needs to get a PEA and then move to “fast track production” when added to the historical drilling that shows a lot of meterage but was done for another purpose, namely to find better, higher grade oxide with which it could extend mine life.
- Now for an idea of project economics on this low grading oxide halo material. At the moment, both LSL and the third party technical report compilers MDA are using a conceptual recovery level of 75% for the silver held at Trinity. This means that processing a tonne of rock will earn you perhaps $18, at best in payable metal (based on 22g Ag grade, 16g recovered, $35/oz Ag price). From this you pay mining, processing, smelting, G&A, tax and interest on any loan. Look, on paper it might be possible to process that rock and make a marginal profit, but off the top of my head I can think of a dozen, nay two dozen other development stage silver projects that offer far, far better ballpark economics than that and none of them have a market cap anywhere near $70m, let alone $126m.
- As for the valuation consider one thing, simply for perspective: According to the price at which LSL closed Thursday ($1.58), it’s $1.4m in cash and 70% of Trinity (assuming it makes the optioning-in commitment) is worth $126.4m by company market cap. Meanwhile, its 30% partner REN.to has a market cap of around $30m, but it also has another 30 exploration targets on its books (26 of those in Nevada/Utah), working capital of $6.3m (IKN estimated, with June 30 filings showing working cap of $7.36m and a company with modest underlying burn rate) and top class geols running its show (it was spun out of AuEx Ventures and is headed by Ron Parratt, known in the trade as world class especially on Nevada).
...Ronaldinho Gaucho's goal, October 6th 2012, is one of them.
If you only watch one goal being scored this year, make it this one.
And about his emotions afterwards: His stepfather died the day before the match and he nearly didn't play due to the news. Instead he did and scored three goals in the 6-0 win.
"This book is the culmination of these seven years of study, bordering on obsession. Just as I saw the financial crash of 2008 coming, I now see another one, even more calamitous, headed our way; only this one has serious political ramifications as well. But now, as then, not one high-profile politician, economist or journalist seems to "get it" - because not one of them have correctly identified the cause of our problems.
"I had never thought, before, about the nature of money. I never realised that there is a direct link between what we use as money and liberty, honesty and efficiency. It is in money – the blood of an economy – that our salvation lies.
"Support this book, and I’ll explain all"
"Readers of this blog know that for the past few weeks, we (mostly me, really) have raised serious doubts about Datanálisis’ poll predictions. At the same time, we relied on Consultores 21′s projection that Capriles was ahead.The results were a clear endorsement of Datanálisis, who predicted the outcome pretty nicely, and a serious embarassment to Consultores 21.So in that regard, kudos to Datanálisis and their team. They can be proud, and I apologize for criticizing them."
With 90% of ballots counted, Chávez has 54.42% of the valid vote, Capriles: 44.97%. The end.
And now allow me to re-post IKN's final thought on the Venezuela bunfest, dated September 21st 2012. the bit highlighted in red is highlighted in red.
We're now two weeks and a bit from the October 7th vote that will decide whether Hugo Chávez Frías keeps his job or whether Henrique Capriles Radonski gets a new job. As the media bullshit chatter is already ratcheting up and is going to get a lot worse in the days left, IKN is therefore going to keep away from all the false polemics and liberty/tyranny/democracy/dictatorship/freedom/fair/fraud tosh and nonsense that your media channels of choice are bound to subject you to and make this post today our final comment on the subject until October 8th minimum. So for the record...
- I think Chávez is favourite and if you wanted a book number from me, I'd go for something around 75% chance. Purely seat-of-pants subjective stuff. Put another gun to my head and I'd go for Chávez securing 55% of valid votes come the big day. Again, guesstimate.
- However, this means that Capriles has about 24% more chance than any other candidate running against Chávez in recent years and his campaign shouldn't be written off. Henrique Capriles has run a good campaign, a smart campaign and has played to his strengths more than trying to attack Chávez on any given occasion. That type of slugfest would have favoured Chávez much more, so Capriles' strategic decision to keep away from the insult-swapping type of campaign has been a good one. Bottom line: I'd consider it a surprise if he wins, but not a stunning surprise.
- But one 100% dead cert is that media coverage and anal yst comment is going to be all-but insufferable. World-and-his-spouse all suddenly experts on the intricacies of Venezuelan politics? Why of course!
- The final confident prediction is that on October 8th, the losers will be calling fraud. That, my fine feathered friends, is a given.So, until October 8th and if you really have the right type of masochistic streak that insists you keep up with the BS show, Two Weeks Notice is as good a filter as any, I think.
For me, looks like the average of all was better than any particular.
UPDATE: We now have an official result from the CNE: Chávez wins. With 90% of ballots counted, Chávez has 54.42% of the valid vote, Capriles: 44.97%. The end.