Venezuela: The latest Datanálisis poll puts Chávez comfortably aheadWednesday saw the dissemination (15) of the latest (and likely final) poll from the best of a bad bunch Venezuela polling company Datanálisis and the news is that there has been little change in the support for the two candidates for President, challenger Capriles and incumbent Chávez, which means that Hugo Chávez should now be considered favourite for the October 7th election. The poll, conducted between September 3rd and 8th on 1,200 people from all socio-economic walks of life in Venezuela and with a reported margin of error of 2.82%, put Chávez on 43.1% support for the vote and Capriles on 30%.
That headline number is good for Chávez and there’s little comfort for Henrique Capriles in the other details either. Of the Chávez 43.1%, no less than 99.4% consider themselves “hard votes” for the current President who will not change their mind under any circumstances. As for the undecided, Datanálisis reported that of the 26.9% who responded that they didn’t know who they’d vote for or wouldn’t vote on the day (via spoiling ballot, not going to vote, etc) 10.7% were inclining towards Chávez and 6.4% were inclining towards Capriles, which if translated into votes on the day would see Chávez winning 53.8% of the popular vote and be called clear winner.Finally, another interesting datapoint in this opinion poll was that 41.7% of those questioned said they considered themselves “Chavistas” (i.e. Chávez supporters, or pro-current government), just 16.1% considered themselves “anti-Chavistas”, 38.6% said they were neither one nor the other while 3.6% did not respond. This strikes your author as a very different make-up to the type of coverage we get about Venezuela from both the national and international media.